In the red corner we have America.
A young buck that has grown exponentially over the past 100 years, in part because of its immigration policy.
Their reward has been a huge, diverse talent pool of individuals from all over the world. “The melting pot”, in the words of David Brent.
Levi Strauss, Sergey Brin, Arianna Huffington, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Madeleine Albright – the list of successful American immigrants is endless.
Beyond the household names, Silicon Valley magnetized international tech talent and New York gobbled up finance, legal and professional services talent.
The U.S has effectively served as a global vacuum for talented, driven individuals.
For some great examples, look no further than the current roster of CEOs at the highest growth companies in the world: Alphabet, Twitter, Microsoft, IBM and Adobe. All Indian natives who immigrated to America.
As a fighter, the U.S is well trained, lean and has a history littered with success.
Quite an intimidating opponent. Think Ivan Drago in Rocky IV.
In the blue corner we have the Internet.
A even more youthful opponent with no government, no immigration and no sovereignty. But – and the ‘but’ here is stratospheric – it is the most sophisticated global network that has ever existed.
So much so that it could render economic immigration obsolete, allowing 5 Billion people to connect with each other without leaving their armchair.
Right now that means video calls and “you’re on mute”. In a decade it will be virtual reality and photo-realistic meetings. Anyone meeting anyone, from anywhere.
As a fighter, they’re a young Mike Tyson: ferociously powerful, scarily efficient and not even close to their prime.
The internet, combined with the pandemic effects, has turned the fight for information workers on its head. A nations ability to attract top talent will now boil down to their ‘livability’ – rule of law, schooling, scenery, infrastructure, culture and taxation.
Ding Ding! Round 1, and America lands a few early blows.
Historic infrastructure, legacy family connections and patriotism will factor into job choices of those who already live in the States.
But the litmus test will be an information worker based in India. Will she be enamored by The American Dream or will technology allow her to pursue The American Dream…from home, working for a multi-national company remotely and improving the local economy by spending and investing her hard earned paycheck.
My guess is she stays in India.
Now near her family, she can complete the majority of her work remotely. Maybe travelling to an international or American satellite office once a quarter for team building sessions.
The knock out blow in this fight could be the second order effects. Imagine a scenario where immigrants who would have previously flocked to America to create companies and work at high earning information based positions, choose not to.
The talent tap is slowly but surely turned off.
Our skilled Indian information worker doesn’t buy the townhouse in Pacific Heights, the groceries from Wallgreens or pay the The Nueva School fees. They are replaced by a Malabar Hill apartment, Whole Foods Mumbai and fees at Trinity International School.
Compound this for every would-be talented immigrant and in 10-20 years the economic and societal impact could be enormous.
Judges’ Scorecard:
Economically, socially and culturally – immigration enriches societies. Without it, we would probably be much more inward leaning, boring countries.
If technology removes or even reduces the burning desire for economic migration, the results will leave clear winners and losers.
Of course, high earning information workers don’t make up the bulk of society, but their taxation and subsequent spending does have an impact on a country’s purse strings and technology.
If an individual or company’s productivity is maintained or improved, remote working is the 21st century pandora’s box.
A flywheel effect is created: the company realize their employees can work remotely or partially-remotely, saving them money, making them more profitable.
Simultaneously, the employee flywheel is spinning: employees realize they can be as or more productive remotely or partially remotely, saving them time and money, creating a better work-life balance.
As it stands today, America – our ultimate Prizefighter – may start to feel a recurring jab from this new way of working. At this point a discomfort, nothing more. But the compound effect of this jab could be telling over the next few decades.
The fight is on to create a nation that fulfils the new rules of attraction: rule of law, schooling, scenery, infrastructure, culture and taxation.
Who lifts the belt is anyone’s guess. In the words of a young Mike Tyson, “everyone has a plan until…your workforce is equally productive remotely and diverts their economic capital to their local environment instead of moving abroad for a better life”.
I might have paraphrased slightly, but you get the picture. The knees of The American Dream aren’t quite knocking yet, but watch this space.