The pandemic changed the way information workers work. Here’s how I think the next 2 years will play out…
H1 2022: Muddle through
As the pandemic hopefully eases, more antiviral drugs become available and vaccines/treatments become prevalent, there should be semblance of a ‘new normal’ by mid-2022 at the latest.
Expect a muddle through on working practices until then. WFH, in office, hybrid. With no definitive pattern.
H2 2022: The meetings boom
All the meetings that were postponed, rescheduled and moved to virtual will finally take place in person.
Pent up demand will create a tidal wave of IRL events, meetings and work-social occasions, which will most likely see fantastic attendance and bumper engagement. Clients will be visited by plane, train and automobile as businesses race to get facetime, with expense budgets looking a lot like pre-COVID.
If I was in the business of creating and hosting events – which I am – this is the time I would look to capitalize on what could be an engagement peak.
H1 2023: Slump & sustainability concerns
Following the meeting boom, there will be a slump.
By this point most companies will have formalized and settled on their working strategy e.g this position can WFH 3 days a week, ‘we prefer people in the office on Wednesdays’ etc. Employees will know what is expected of them in output and attendance.
Sustainability awareness will increase after this concentrated period of travel. A reduced transport commute for individuals, notably less business travel and guidance on replacing IRL with Zoom.
It wouldn’t surprise me if a sustainability metric was created per employee that mapped a baseline ‘pre-covid’ footprint – 5 day a week commute, lengthy business travel – versus a post-covid footprint. Aggregate these figures for a 10,000 person company and you have a compelling earnings call datapoint on post-pandemic sustainability progress.
Most information workers will settle on 1-3 days a week in the office. However, given the choice 2 days a week will be most popular. Either way, productivity and output are now the primary metrics for smart managers. The days of leaving after your boss for appearances sake are fading fast.
H2 2023: Normalization
By H2 2023 we should be in a position where post-COVID working practices are normalized.
I expect an equilibrium between virtual and IRL to reign supreme. Coming into the office will be more of an event, client meetings will generally be condensed into IRL days and Monday’s and Friday’s will be universally worked from home.
Home offices will become dedicated ‘Zoom rooms’, styled as such with lighting, audio and background quality a priority. Especially in client facing roles.
2024 & beyond: Working evolution
Virtual meetings begin to take place via AR or VR, most likely both.
Companies begin to outsource/offshore fully remote information workers at scale. Four day working week trials. West Ham win the Champions League.
Caveats & nuances:
– COVID.
– Working practices are responsibility-dependent: a new graduate or CEO experience may look different, but this prediction applies to the majority of information workers.
– Finally, ‘prediction’ is a fancy word for ‘best guess based on experience and bias’. Treat this as such.